A Supply Chain Under Serious Strain
Europe's exposure to this crisis is significant. Around 75% of the continent's jet fuel comes from the Middle East, making aviation more vulnerable to this particular disruption than any other form of transport. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, fuel prices have shot up, and airlines are now openly warning about cancellations, grounded aircraft, and price hikes if the situation doesn't turn around soon.

Starting next month, the European Commission plans to launch EU-wide mapping of oil refining capacity and push measures to ensure every available refinery is running at full tilt. A separate set of measures focused specifically on jet fuel is also being developed, though those details are still being worked out. The full package is expected to be formally published on April 22. Britain, now outside the EU, would not fall under these proposed rules.

The International Energy Agency has already flagged that if the region can only replace half of its usual Middle Eastern supply, shortages could arrive as early as June. Alternative sources like Africa and the United States can help, but not enough to fully close the gap. Making things harder, fuel handling operations at airports typically don't stockpile large reserves, meaning the pipeline from supplier to runway is shorter and more fragile than many assume. Some airports have warned they could face shortages within just three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

Europe's own refining capacity hasn't helped the situation. Years of declining domestic oil production and a policy push toward cleaner energy have quietly shrunk the continent's ability to produce fuel independently. The IEA noted this month that many European refiners are already running at maximum capacity for jet fuel — leaving little room to compensate for import losses.

Lufthansa's Chief Technology Officer, Grazia Vittadini, captured the mood of the industry well, noting that jet fuel suppliers have stopped giving forecasts beyond a one-month window — a sign of just how uncertain the outlook has become. Meanwhile, major airports, including Heathrow, said the war's effects had not yet disrupted operations, though the situation is being watched closely.

Uneven Stocks and the Road Ahead
The jet fuel picture looks very different depending on where you are in Europe. Spain, with eight refineries, actually exports jet fuel and is well-positioned. Britain, by contrast, relies on imports for more than 60% of its aviation fuel needs — a vulnerability that stands out sharply right now.

European airlines have urged the EU to step up monitoring and even explore joint purchasing of aviation kerosene as a way to manage supply collectively. The OECD Europe region as a whole — covering EU members plus countries like Britain and Norway — imports more than 30% of its jet fuel, with the bulk of that flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

EU rules already require member states to hold 90 days' worth of emergency oil reserves. Jet fuel isn't separately mandated, but countries are allowed to count it toward their overall stock targets. Whether that buffer will be enough, and for how long, depends heavily on how the situation in the Middle East develops in the coming weeks.

President Donald Trump suggested on Wednesday that a resolution to the Iran conflict could come soon, telling the world to watch for what he called an "amazing two days." Whether that optimism translates into open shipping lanes in time to save Europe's summer travel season remains to be seen.