According to Kupchan, Washington is growing more doubtful that Moscow has any real interest in negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Still, he pointed out that the Trump administration's options remain somewhat limited, largely because of concerns over how further pressure on Russia could ripple through global oil markets. He explained that Trump doesn't appear eager to escalate tensions further or push oil prices into more turbulent territory right now, noting that squeezing any nation economically, Russia included, is far harder in practice than it sounds.

New Sanctions Package Heads to Trump's Desk
The conversation comes as the US House of Representatives passed a sweeping new sanctions bill targeting Russia earlier this week, ramping up economic pressure over the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The legislation now awaits President Trump's signature.

Among its provisions, the bill would give the president authority to slap tariffs as steep as 100% on countries that continue buying large volumes of Russian oil and gas, a move that could hit China and India particularly hard, given that both remain major buyers of Russian energy. It's worth noting, though, that these tariffs wouldn't kick in automatically. Trump would need to make a separate decision to actually impose them.

Diplomacy Stalls as Trust Erodes
Kupchan also weighed in on the White House's recent attempts to broker some kind of resolution to the war. He suggested there's little doubt Trump feels he's been misled or manipulated by Putin throughout the process, though he remained doubtful that a genuine breakthrough is anywhere close.

Turning to the string of suspected sabotage incidents that have hit various parts of Europe recently, Kupchan warned that the risk of things escalating further shouldn't be dismissed. In his view, a firm and clear response from Washington could act as the strongest possible deterrent against further Russian aggression. He stressed that Trump needs to leave no room for doubt with Putin: tampering with Article 5 or launching an attack against any NATO member would mean Russia is at war with the United States.