Moldova's security has raised particular concerns in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moldova does not border Russia, but Moscow's forces are already based next door, in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which broke off from Moldova after a brief war in the early 1990s. They are described here as peacekeepers but are seen by Chișinău as an invasion of the sovereignty of the country.

Incrasing Influence and Regional Tensions
Transnistria serves as a major bastion of Russian influence in southeastern Europe. Sitting between Ukraine and the rest of Moldova, which is shifting more and more toward the European Union and wants to join by 2030, the region presents an obstacle to getting what the West wants. Moldova has repeatedly accused Russia of political interference, including meddling in elections and efforts at destabilizing the country.

Another pro-EU leader, President Maia Sandu, was re-elected in November, defeating an opponent from the pro-Russian Socialist Party. Allegations of Russian meddling cast a pall over her re-election and increased tensions between the two nations.

Possible Regional Fallout From Troop Movement
Recean underlined in a recent interview regional risks for Russian troops to be stationed in Transnistria at a level of 10 thousand men. It would not just pressure southwestern Ukraine," he cautioned, "but it would place further pressure on the country and on Romania, a member of NATO, close to Moldova.

Although the Moldovan government has been obliging, it continues to stand firm on the complete evacuation of Russian forces from Transnistria, which it recognises as a sign of Putin's direct challenge to Moldovan sovereignty and democracy.