A Win That May Not Bring Power
The biggest complication involves Arab parties, which could take around 14 seats. Those seats could prove decisive, but Eisenkot has already ruled out bringing them into his coalition. That leaves him with a tricky puzzle. Ian Lesser, a Middle East expert at the German Marshall Fund, believes the outcome could set off "a very protracted political negotiation." In plain terms, Israelis may not know who will lead them for quite some time after the votes are counted.

Lesser also cautioned against putting too much faith in opinion polls. Surveys can point to a trend, he suggested, but they rarely settle a race this tight.

What Is Really at Stake
For many voters, this election is about more than party loyalties. It works as a verdict on how Netanyahu handled the October 2023 attacks led by Hamas, the wars that followed and the highly disputed judicial reforms.

If Eisenkot does form a government, both Lesser and Schindler say the effects might be felt mostly at home and abroad in tone rather than in substance. They suggested he could calm the sharp divisions inside Israel and help repair the country's standing around the world. On Iran, though, they do not expect a major shift in security policy.