Trzaskowski In Lead, Too Close To Call Runoff

Sources: Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition (KO) is currently leading with 31.36% of the votes, according to the official numbers. Trailing by 29.54% is conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS). The space between them is less than two percentage points, indicating a closely fought competitive second round.

Trzaskowski won 6,175,384 votes and won in 11 of the 16 voivodeships, most of them in the west and in the north, cities being a strong Trzaskowski bastion. Nawrocki won 5,817,054 votes and took five southeastern regions in a landslide, doing well in rural zones.

Losing the first round, Trzaskowski has barely improved on his performance in the 2020 vote. His challenge is to win over support from the left-wing and the center: candidates like Szymon Hołownia (4.99 percent), Magdalena Biejat (4.23 percent), and Adrian Zandberg (4.86 percent) alone commanding just over 13 percent.

Far-Right Gain Alters Dynamics of Voting
The shocking ascension of far-right candidates is already a key element of the first round. Sławomir Mentzen of Confederation garnered 14.80%, and Grzegorz Braun of the Polish Crown 6.34%. Together they earned more than 21 percent of the overall vote — one in five voters — a major force despite not making the runoff.

Mentzen's support was highest among the youngest voters, at 36.1% of the 18-29 age category and 26.2% in the 30-39 bracket. If Nawrocki can unify this support behind him, these numbers provide him with a theoretical path to victory. But Mentzen hasn't endorsed anyone and publicly blasted Nawrocki over a scam on flat rent acquisition, so coalescing could be problematic.

What Both Candidates Must Overcome
Nawrocki comes into round two with a chance to carry some forward momentum. If he can retain his PiS base and pull far-right voters toward him without pushing away conservatives, he could eclipse Trzaskowski. He has presented himself as an outsider to liberal rules, and Trzaskowski has become his punching bag for his association with Donald Tusk.

Instead, Hołownia has endorsed Trzaskowski, with the indications of support of Biejat. He has begun to reach out to the left-wing voters in the party, with a focus on progressive policies including women's right to choose and taking on housing reform. But he still must reunite his splitting base and push back against the rising power of the far right.

What the Results Could Mean for Poland
The repercussions of this runoff are momentous. Nawrocki's victory would also put an opposition candidate in the presidency, with the power to veto legislation and shape appointments, which could slow down the current government's agenda until the next parliamentary elections in 2027.

On the flip side, if Trzaskowski wins, "for the first time in a decade…you will have the president and the government part of the same project," allowing smoother governance and movement on reforms, such as in the judiciary.

Over the next two weeks, as both campaigns heat up, Poland's voters will be making a momentous choice — one that could well determine the political direction of the country in years to come.

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