Rising Tensions at the Frontier
The crossings are getting more violent, with migrants throwing stones, shards of metal, and Molotov cocktails at Polish border guards and soldiers. The service published video footage of people trying to climb the five-meter barrier, only to be caught by patrols.

Fears of Orchestrated Crisis
It is alleged to be a part of a "hybrid war" orchestrated by Moscow and Minsk, stoking the crisis just for this purpose, the Polish authorities claim. Some fear this could be a possible concerted campaign involving Russia, Belarus, and Libyan warlord Gen. Khalifa Haftar to push migrants towards the EU's eastern borders.

Resonances of the 2021 Border Standoff
The Belarusian leader was accused of issuing visas and organizing transport to illegally bring migrants from the Middle East and Africa to Poland and the Baltic states in 2021, a campaign that caught some European Commission monitoring.

Increased Flights Raise Alarms
It has now been reported that there is an increase in flights between Libya and Belarus, further fueling theories of coordination among all the relevant actors. The potential objective is to squeeze the EU by sending irregular migrants into its weakest border areas.

Strengthening Border Defenses
In return, Poland is rushing to raise its 400-kilometer border wall with Belarus and hopes to finish construction by mid-2025. The first disaster struck in 2021, a hyperlapse of the construction site being built (beginning in late 2021).

Regional Call for EU Support
Poland, along with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, also called on the EU to finance a stronger defense barrier near an existing 700 km border with Russia and Belarus. The wall could protect the whole bloc from military and non-military threats from Moscow, they claim.