The data from the Ukrainian air force show that interception rates for Russian missiles have dropped sharply from 37% in August to only 6% in September. In one recent overnight Russian missile attack, all four Iskander-M missiles found their target after avoiding air defence systems. Experts note that these adjustments in the missile systems' software, along with the guidance systems that allow them to strategically manoeuvre aggressively at the final stage of flight, make them much more challenging to intercept.

A Relevant Threat
Over the summer, these upgrades have enabled Russia to strike at increasingly sensitive targets. Numerous missile strikes targeting drone production facilities occurred in and around Kyiv. For example, during an August 28 drone attack, at least two missiles struck offices connected to the manufacturing of drone components, severely damaging buildings of the EU delegation and the British Council nearby.

Ukrainian officials have referred to the missile upgrades as this presents a "significant threat", and they have pointed out that existing missile defence has become less effective.

Apprehension About the Winter
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated Russia is preparing to strike Ukraine's energy grid over the winter months. Last winter, Ukraine faced massive power and heating deficits in the coldest months of the year due to an extensive number of strikes on energy infrastructure pre-empted by Russia. Authorities now fear similar strikes will return in winter 2024.