Mounting Pressure on the Alliance
Trump has made little secret of his impatience with NATO. He has long questioned the alliance's value and recently grew openly angry after European members declined to back America's military campaign against Iran, a war launched without prior consultation with allies. Some NATO countries even refused to grant US aircraft basing or overflight rights for war-related operations, a move that deepened his frustration. Trump went as far as publicly questioning whether the US should honor NATO's mutual defense commitment, and at one point suggested he was considering leaving the alliance altogether.

The tension has not been limited to the Iran conflict. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used a NATO meeting last week to publicly criticize European allies for what he called free-riding on American security, and announced a six-month review of US troop deployments in Europe that could lead to reductions. The US has also quietly reduced the pool of military capabilities it makes available to the alliance during crises, leaving European members trying to figure out how to fill the gaps.

Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, summed up the stakes plainly. He described the upcoming summit as carrying real risk, noting that Trump's unpredictability means that even if Rutte leaves Washington feeling reassured, there is no guarantee the mood will hold two weeks later.

Rutte's Diplomatic Balancing Act
Rutte has played a delicate role ever since Trump's return to the White House following the November 2024 election. He has quietly worked to manage Trump's hostility toward NATO and prevent individual flare-ups from hardening into permanent damage. When Trump began pushing to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory belonging to fellow NATO member Denmark, Rutte helped pull the alliance back from a serious breakdown, earning a reputation as someone who knows how to handle the American president.

Ahead of Wednesday's meeting, Rutte acknowledged that some allies had blocked US military access but framed those cases as isolated incidents, pointing out that hundreds of American aircraft had still flown from US bases across Europe in support of Washington's operations. He also said he planned to present Trump with updated defense spending figures from alliance members, describing the numbers as significant.

The Ankara summit is expected to take stock of progress made since last year's gathering in The Hague, where NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP on defense and defense-related measures within a decade. While some European countries have moved quickly to meet that commitment, others have been slower to follow through. Rutte is also scheduled to meet with members of Congress during his Washington visit, as the US continues to push the message that Europe must take on greater responsibility for its own security.