Defeats in Brazil and Serbia
In Brazil, right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro lost the second-round vote to incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Serbian story was just as striking. Aleksandar Vučić stepped down as president last month to lead the ruling coalition's campaign and run for prime minister. It didn't work out. His coalition was beaten in the parliamentary election by a student-led movement that grew out of anti-corruption protests.

Carpenter described the result as a completely fresh start, pointing out that the movement has held the country's attention for the past two years. He also drew a line to Péter Magyar's recent victory in Hungary. In his view, both outcomes are a rebuke of the kleptocratic, authoritarian-leaning style of governing seen under Vučić in Serbia and Orbán in Hungary.

What It Means for the Western Balkans
So how far will the effects travel? Carpenter says it will take time to know. He believes the result sends a message across the Western Balkans that nationalist populism is on the decline. But for neighbors such as North Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania, the short-term impact is still unclear.

Israel Up Next
All eyes now turn to Israel. Carpenter says the coming vote could bring another rebuke to the populist, right-wing, nationalistic government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, though whether that happens remains to be seen. He expects the race to be watched very closely, since the fallout would reach well beyond Israel and be felt across the entire Persian Gulf.