Strait of Hormuz Remains the Flashpoint
More than a month has passed since a fragile ceasefire came into effect, yet both sides have made virtually no headway toward a formal agreement. In the meantime, Iran appears to be tightening its hold on the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that under normal circumstances handles roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply. Tehran has reportedly struck deals with Iraq and Pakistan to move oil and liquefied natural gas through the region, and other countries are said to be exploring similar arrangements. Analysts warn this pattern could gradually normalize Iran's long-term dominance over the strait.

Ahead of Thursday's scheduled meetings with Xi, senior U.S. and Chinese officials agreed last month that no country should be permitted to impose tolls on maritime traffic through the region. China, which has longstanding ties with Iran and continues to purchase Iranian oil, did not push back on that position — a small but notable sign of alignment before the summit begins.

Washington's demands remain firm: Iran must dismantle its nuclear program and release its grip on the strait. Tehran, however, has countered with its own set of conditions — war damage compensation, an end to the U.S. blockade, and a full ceasefire that includes Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah is engaged in conflict with U.S. ally Israel. Trump wasted no time dismissing those terms, calling them "garbage" on Monday.

Economic Pressure Mounts at Home
Back in the United States, the financial toll of the war is beginning to show. The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that consumer inflation accelerated further in April, marking its steepest annual rise in three years. Food prices jumped sharply, and rental and airfare costs also climbed. With midterm elections less than six months away, cost-of-living concerns are weighing heavily on voters.

Yet Trump made it clear that none of those factors went into his calculations on Iran. When asked directly how much Americans' economic pain was shaping his desire for a deal, his answer was blunt: "Not even a little bit." He stated that his singular focus is preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon — full stop.

The Pentagon has put the total cost of the war at $29 billion, up $4 billion from estimates released just weeks ago. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln remains stationed in the Arabian Sea, where it has redirected 65 commercial vessels and disabled four others as part of the ongoing U.S. blockade. Brent crude oil futures pushed past $107 a barrel amid the continued deadlock.

Polls paint a difficult picture for the administration. Two out of three Americans — including one in three Republicans and nearly all Democrats — say Trump has not adequately explained why the country went to war. Iranian officials, meanwhile, show no signs of backing down. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has expanded its defined zone of control over the Strait of Hormuz, stretching from the city of Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west, while military drills focused on confronting enemy forces were reported by state television in Tehran.