Drones Over Moscow, Missiles Over Kyiv
The scale of Thursday's drone attack was significant. Russia's defence ministry reported that 555 drones were intercepted across the country, with Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirming that 180 were shot down in the Moscow area alone. Despite those efforts, several drones broke through and struck the oil refinery in Kapotnya, a densely populated southeastern district of the capital. Flames and thick smoke rose over the area. A nearby shopping centre also suffered minor damage, according to Sobyanin. State media described the assault as one of the largest drone attacks on Moscow this year.

Beyond the refinery, the surrounding Moscow region saw a high-rise residential building, an industrial facility, and several private homes sustain damage. Flights were suspended across all Moscow airports, including Sheremetyevo, the city's busiest, which was evacuated. Traffic on the ring road near the refinery was also halted. In other parts of Russia, a man was killed in his car in the Belgorod border region, and one person died in a drone strike on commercial facilities in the Rostov region.

On the Ukrainian side, explosions struck Kyiv as ballistic missiles were launched at the capital. Airstrike alerts were issued across most of the country. In the northeastern city of Sumy, one person was killed in a separate drone attack. Days earlier, a major Russian strike had damaged a centuries-old monastery in Kyiv, a site of deep spiritual and cultural significance, drawing sharp condemnation from European leaders. Russia denied responsibility for that strike.

The Bigger Picture: Energy, Diplomacy, and the War's Direction
Ukraine has been systematically targeting Russian energy infrastructure for months, and the pressure is beginning to show. The Tuesday strike earlier this week had already forced the Moscow refinery to halt operations. Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer and a major fuel exporter, is now reportedly planning to import fuel by sea to manage a domestic gasoline shortage caused by repeated Ukrainian strikes on its refining capacity.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha addressed Russian citizens directly after the attack, saying the strikes were a direct consequence of Russia's war against Ukraine and urging them to ask President Putin when he intended to end it. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described the drone campaign as a fair and justified response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, and as a blow to the infrastructure sustaining Russia's war effort.

Ukraine says it is now gaining ground at the front for the first time since 2023, using medium-range drones to disrupt supply lines and longer-range ones to hit deep inside Russian territory. Kyiv argues this momentum should compel Moscow to come to the negotiating table. Russia, however, insists Ukraine is losing and has demanded that Kyiv surrender additional territory before any peace talks can begin. Zelenskiy has been ramping up diplomatic efforts to build international pressure on Moscow to negotiate.