Iran War Risks Turning Into Long Regional Conflict

Six months after the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Dalay noted that Washington and Tehran remain far apart on their core strategic goals. Fresh attacks just this week have reignited fears that the conflict could spread even further beyond its current borders.

Negotiations Happening Alongside the Fighting
According to Dalay, this war has been moving through repeated waves of escalation followed by de-escalation and negotiation, yet none of these cycles has led to a lasting political resolution. He believes Washington has managed to score some tactical wins along the way, but hasn't come close to achieving its larger objectives, which include curbing Iran's nuclear program, limiting its missile capabilities, and reducing its influence across the region.

He also flagged a growing concern: mixed messaging coming from President Donald Trump and other senior US officials, which he says raises the chances of a serious miscalculation somewhere down the line. As Dalay put it, the more the conflict spreads across the region, the longer it's likely to drag on.

Meanwhile, pressure has been building on Iran's neighboring countries, as Tehran and groups aligned with it continue targeting US-linked sites and regional energy infrastructure. Dalay doesn't see a lasting cooldown happening anytime soon, not without a broader de-escalation effort that includes both the US and Israel stepping back.

Global Fallout Through the Strait of Hormuz
This conflict hasn't stayed contained to the region, largely because of the disruption it's caused in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries around one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supply. While shipping through the strait had partially bounced back after earlier disruptions, this week's renewed fighting has once again put that recovery at risk, sending Brent crude prices climbing.

Dalay believes Europe needs to step up and take on a bigger diplomatic role in resolving the crisis. He also suggested that European nations should start rethinking their trade and energy routes to reduce how much they depend on maritime chokepoints that are this vulnerable to disruption. Beyond that, he argued that Europe's eastern and southern neighborhoods shouldn't be viewed as separate issues, but rather as one connected strategic space, tying together security concerns in Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Middle East.

As Dalay summed it up, Europe won't be able to reshape or stabilize the region around it unless it starts acting like a genuine geopolitical player in its own neighborhood.