politics

Grzegorz Braun's Surprise Surge Alters Polish Election Dynamics

Poland's presidential election has had a surprising result as ultranationalist candidate Grzegorz Braun came fourth in the first round of the contest with 6.34% of the vote. Once dismissed as on the fringes, Braun shocked many by mustering more than 1.2 million votes, enough to truly make himself a force as the election moves into a second round between liberal centrist Rafał Trzaskowski, and conservative Karol Nawrocki. Now both of the two top candidates have to think about the impact of Braun's voters in the end.

By Oskar Malec | Last Updated: 21 May 2025

Braun's Far Left Wing and Voter Appeal

It was a campaign like no other, an ultra-nationalist Catholic platform steeped in extreme ideology. He was also an antisemite, anti-Ukrainian and monarchist; he advocated for the designation of Jesus Christ as King of Poland. His platform also included taking Poland out of the European Union, labelling in-vitro fertilization as evil, bashing post-Vatican II Catholicism and urging the elimination of income tax.

He also called for the widespread ownership of guns to be legalised, for scare stories about the dangers of vaccination to be supported with a flow of public health institutions, and for a complete ban on abortion. Although he claimed to be against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Braun often parroted pro-Kremlin themes, blamed the Polish government for spreading war panic, and called for an end to both sanctions and military aid.

One of the campaign's viral moments was Braun's antisemitic eruption during a televised debate with Trzaskowski. Actions such as these might ruin a political career, yet Braun's fans cheered the moves.

Surprisingly it was not just the elderly or the fringe extremists who supported Braun. Exit polling showed that more than 57 per cent of his voters were men, the vast majority between 30 and 49. His best showing was in the 30-39 age demographic, where he was supported by almost 10% of voters. It also had less support from the youngest voters (5.3% for those 18 to 29) and seniors (2.9% for those over 60).

Braun did best in conservative southeastern provinces like Podkarpackie and Lubelskie, which gave him more than 9 per cent, and Świętokrzyskie, where he won nearly 8 per cent of the vote. Almost half of his votes came from villages. His urban support was tepid, with just 3.9 per cent (in cities of 500,000 people or more), but many of his backers were highly educated. One-third maintained a university degree, and an additional 44% had a secondary or vocational level of education. By occupation, he got over 10% support from workers and farmers and nearly 9% from the unemployed along with significant backing from small business owners.

From Fringe Crusader to Political Upsetter
Grzegorz Braun didn't come out of nowhere. His path started in the 1980s with the Orange Alternative, a group of surrealist protesters who waged war on communism. Braun was different from the ordinary and real-life politicians of the time. He turned to documentary filmmaking and, since then, has made content that challenges Poland's post-communist history. His movies denounced the leaders of the past as having colluded with communist forces and cautioned against secularism and modern science as corrosive to national identity.

By the 2010s, Braun was fully in politics. Early attempts, including a 2015 presidential bid, failed. He later became part of the Confederation alliance and was also elected to the lower house in 2019. In 2024, he was elected to the European Parliament. In that same year, he founded the Confederation of the Polish Crown a monarchist splinter party. But his hardline policies and run-ins with his supporters eventually saw him expelled from the Confederation in early 2025.

Braun has developed something of an image as a provocateur as well as an embracer of controversy. He stormed the lower house of Poland's Parliament with a fire extinguisher to interrupt a Hanukkah ceremony in December 2023. After facing national condemnation for the act, he was sanctioned by having his MP allowance suspended for six months. The fire extinguisher would become a symbol of his movement.

He once shut down a lecture by Holocaust historian Jan Grabowski by breaking the sound system, and he was suspended from the European Parliament over an interruption of a Holocaust memorial. In April 2025, Braun staged a protest inside a hospital in Oleśnica, locking a doctor in her office in order to carry out an anti-abortion demonstration. Braun then faced legal action; seven criminal charges were brought against him and his parliamentary immunity was waived.

Even after his expulsion from his own party and from most media platforms, Braun's image flourished among his adherents, who saw his censure as persecution.

Future Impact Without an Endorsement
Braun has not endorsed either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki for the runoff, and it's doubtful he will. It would also risk turning off liberal supporters of Trzaskowski who could be alienated by an approach to Braun's base. And while Nawrocki does, unfortunately, have something in common with Braun ideologically, associating with him could very well further hurt his broader appeal because of Braun's abhorrent public image.

Still, Braun's 1.2 million voters can matter. Not enough to determine the outcome on its own, but a new force in Polish politics. They do this by stretching the limits of political decorum and reconfiguring the terrain of the right.

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