Poland-Germany Relations May Shift After Nawrocki's Election

Fears of a Cooler Relationship
On Sunday the presidential vote was won by Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is now director of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance. He referred to historical grievances time and time again on the campaign trail, saying one of the key issues between the country was the Volhynia massacre, when Poles were killed by Ukrainian nationalists in World War Two. Nawrocki also repeated his calls for compensations from Germany for the devastation wrought during the war.

Knut Abraham, a German official responsible for Polish relations, said Nawrocki’s election could create a less harmonious backdrop to German relations with Poland and Ukraine. He said the election result was “tough, difficult” and was indicative of deep political divisions in Polish society. Such a position may not be substantialy far from the main line of foreign policy in Poland, he acknowledged.

Crucial Alliances and Outlook for Policy
Abraham said Poland’s commitment to the European Union and the NATO military alliance was likely to remain unchanged as would its support for Ukraine despite comments from Ukraine’s new president during his campaign. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, who will remain in office until August, had also assumed an adversarial position against Germany and focused more on developing relations with the United States and its former president, Donald Trump.

Abraham also voiced concern that the Polish government itself could have trouble delivering big changes. He cautioned that with Nawrocki there is a danger of stagnation in transformations led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, such as the justice system or abortion laws.

Border and Migration Issues
Germany's decision to restore border controls with Poland was on Abraham's mind. He said the move was “indispensable” because of “unacceptable” numbers of illegal migrants arriving from outside the European Union. He stressed the need to strive with Warsaw for a common European migration policy.

Abraham, a member of the center-right CDU party, was recently named Germany’s commissioner for cooperation with Poland to replace Dietmar Nietan in that role. He voiced the hope that his country and the North would continue to see practical cooperation even after the presidential power transfer process.