Russia's Missiles Near Chornobyl Raise Nuclear Accident Risk

A Pattern of Dangerous Fly-Bys
Ukraine operates four nuclear power plants, including Europe's largest, located in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, which has been under Russian military occupation since early in the full-scale invasion that began in 2022. Both the Chornobyl site and the two-reactor Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant in western Ukraine have repeatedly found themselves on the flight path of Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. Kravchenko said radar tracking had identified 35 Kinzhal missiles passing within roughly 20 kilometres of either facility, with 18 of those flying within that range of both sites on the same flight path. Three Kinzhal missiles also came down and landed within around 10 kilometres of the Khmelnytskyi plant during their flights, with no clear sign they had been intercepted.

The Kinzhal is an air-launched hypersonic missile capable of carrying a 500-kilogram warhead and travelling at speeds of around 6,500 kilometres per hour — covering five kilometres in just a few seconds. Since July 2024, when Russia escalated its drone campaign against Ukraine, at least 92 Russian drones have been tracked flying within a five-kilometre radius of Chornobyl's radiation containment shield. Kravchenko noted the actual figure is almost certainly far higher, as radar readings can represent more than one drone and some go undetected entirely. "Such launches cannot be explained by any military considerations," he said, adding that the flights appear designed purely to intimidate. Russia's defence ministry offered no response.

The Damage Already Done and the Risk Ahead
The containment shield at Chornobyl — built to prevent radiation leaking from Reactor No. 4, which exploded on April 26, 1986 — was struck in February last year by what Ukraine identified as a long-range Russian attack drone. The impact pierced the structure. Russia denied responsibility, claiming Ukraine had staged the incident as a provocation. Ukrainian prosecutors concluded after their own investigation that the strike was most likely deliberate, based on the steep angle at which the drone hit — consistent with how one-way attack drones behave in their final descent toward a target. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has estimated that repairs will cost at least 500 million euros, equivalent to around $588 million. Without that work, it has been warned that irreversible corrosion of the structure will set in within four years.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly flagged the dangers of military activity near nuclear sites and attacks on electrical infrastructure critical to nuclear safety. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has called on all sides to exercise maximum restraint near such facilities. Ukraine believes Russia is deliberately using Chornobyl as a corridor for drone attacks, exploiting the fact that Ukrainian air defences are concentrated around populated areas and key infrastructure — leaving the exclusion zone, located less than 10 kilometres from the Belarusian border and around 100 kilometres from Kyiv, dangerously exposed.