US Decisions Threaten China Trade Truce and Student Visas

But that optimism proved short-lived on Wednesday night, when the US took two major steps. Both are likely to deepen China’s concerns and could disrupt future trade talks. The temporary trade truce, which has a shelf life of just 90 days, has become tenuous, with the clock ticking to reach a permanent deal.

Tightening Rules on Technology Cause Tension
The initial step was imposing restrictions on American companies from selling software used to design semiconductors to China. Software of this sort is essential for making the tiny chips that are at the heart of smartphones, cars, home electronics and computer systems. A Siemens spokesman said he could not provide further details about the new export rules resulting from US government restrictions on certain chip design tools and buyers in China related to the military.

Those efforts are the latest salvo in a broader tech war between the two countries. Earlier, the Biden administration had restricted Chinese access to American-made semiconductors. The US had also warned firms not to use AI chips from Chinese technology firm Huawei earlier this month. China has devoted tens of billions of dollars to its chip industry to create greater self-reliance, and the new limits are viewed as a major setback to that campaign.
Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in the United States, did not directly discuss the reported restrictions but was withering in his criticism of American efforts, contending that the United States was overplaying national security concerns and focusing disproportionately on China through export controls.

Families Are Hit Hard by Crackdown on Student Visas
The second step hit closer to home for many Chinese families. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio proposed tough visa restrictions specifically on Chinese students, especially those in delicate fields or who have suspected affiliations with the Chinese Communist Party.

This move has sparked a great deal of concern. In 2024, over 270,000 Chinese students were attending American universities, and many of them came from middle-class households that have to make great economic sacrifices to pay for foreign education. Parents usually save money for years and students take extra classes and work with tutors to submit strong applications for American universities.

Now, these same students are afraid they’ll have to leave the US before they were able to finish their studies. Proving that you have no connection to the government can be virtually impossible in the political system of China. China’s foreign ministry has condemned the new policy, saying that it unfairly focuses on students under the pretext of national security and ideology.
Candy, a University of Michigan statistics student, said she was dread of not being able to graduate. During a visit to family in China, she said, speaking in Chinese: “Graduating only from high school is my biggest fear. “that even if I can be able to go but right now is it possible I go freely, go to school to continue with my academics without any problem and graduate successfully.”

Shifts and Ambiguities
While the visa decision arouses immediate concern, some see it as potentially beneficial to China in the long term. Fewer Chinese students have been going to the US in recent years, in part because of safety, racism and immigration concerns. An even larger number may stay closer to home as Chinese universities and counterparts in other countries offer attractive alternatives.
It might also help China keep its best and brightest, the future technology and science leaders. Ironically, efforts by the US to retard Chinese progress could lead more of those skilled researchers to remain in China; they may be just the weapon China needs to catch up, or even exceed, the US in vital fields.

In the midst of this escalating tension, China got a bit of good news on Wednesday. A federal court temporarily halted the United States from imposing most of its international tariff system, including the 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods. But the United States government immediately appealed, making the future of those tariffs — and the trade war more generally — murky.