Experts Warn Putin Is Using Ceasefire Talk to Stall, Not Settle

Her comments came in the wake of a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin, during which both Ukraine and Iran were on the agenda. Trump indicated he had floated the idea of "a little bit of a ceasefire," but Kyiv has been cautious, questioning whether Moscow's approach reflects a genuine desire to end the war or simply a desire for a brief pause timed around Russia's May 9 Victory Day commemorations.

Putin's Two-Track Strategy
Stradner's reading of the situation is clear-eyed and pointed. She argues that Washington should approach any short-term Russian truce proposal with deep skepticism, citing what she describes as a consistent pattern — Moscow agreeing to pauses in fighting only to use that breathing room to regroup and reposition its forces. Peace, she contends, is not the actual objective.

According to Stradner, Putin is pursuing two things at once. First, he wants to persuade Trump that Russia can be treated as a trustworthy negotiating partner. Second, he wants to improve Russia's military footing before any substantive talks begin. Ukraine, for its part, has pushed for something far more meaningful — a full 30-day ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been openly skeptical, suggesting that the Kremlin's proposal is designed more to ensure a calm backdrop for Moscow's Victory Day celebrations than to bring the war to a lasting end.

On the question of Iran, Stradner was equally direct. She cautioned against any assumption that Putin could serve as a useful go-between in U.S.-Iran negotiations, pointing out that Russia and Iran are strategic partners with closely aligned interests — interests that run counter to Washington's goals in the region. Her analogy was blunt: trusting Putin to help resolve the Iran situation, she said, is like asking an arsonist to help put out the fire. Russia, she argued, has backed Iran in both security and intelligence matters and has no real incentive to help the United States achieve its aims in the Middle East. What Putin actually wants, she said, is to be seen as Washington's equal on the world stage.

NATO, Sanctions, and the Road Ahead
Stradner also weighed in on the state of the NATO alliance, addressing concerns that Trump's past criticism of European defense spending and hints at a reduced U.S. role could weaken the bloc. She does not believe Trump will withdraw from NATO, but she does think he is serious about pushing European nations to shoulder more of the defense burden — and she sees signs that Europe is already responding, with member states increasing military spending and the alliance growing stronger as a result.

That said, she warned that Putin may attempt to probe NATO's resolve, particularly in the Baltic region or Central Europe, testing whether the alliance will hold firm when challenged. That moment of testing, she said, will be one of the defining challenges of Trump's presidency in the months ahead.

As for ending the war in Ukraine, Stradner's prescription is straightforward. Tougher sanctions on Russia's energy sector, the introduction of secondary sanctions, and the supply of serious offensive military capabilities to Ukraine — those are the levers she believes could genuinely shorten the conflict. Diplomatic gestures and ceasefire proposals, in her view, will not move Putin. Pressure will.