Russia and Ukraine Prepare for New Peace Talks in Turkey

Rising Attacks and Tensions
Since they last spoke, Russia has conducted four of its five biggest drone strikes against Ukraine, killing more than 340 civilians. Even so, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that a fresh round of talks would begin in Turkey on Monday. The Ukraine region confirmed its delegation, and Russian state media said Moscow’s representatives were en route to Istanbul.

Ukraine, for its part, mounted its most extensive drone attacks on Russian air bases since the start of the war. The development has ratcheted up pressure in the already tense mood going into the talks.

Vague Peace Plans and Political Pressure
According to Ukraine, the two sides agreed at their previous meeting in Istanbul to set out their demands for a ceasefire. Kyiv has handed over its blueprint, but not Russia. On Wednesday, Lavrov said Russia would present its memo for the June 2 meeting. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky castigated the postponement, describing it as “another Russian deception.”

Zelensky also touched upon the upcoming summit with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying that the meeting has to have a substance. On social networking sites, he made clear that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would again lead Ukraine’s delegation.

Interference External and Impasse
Even with that meeting planned, the prospects of an actual agreement are remote. Russian leaders have continued to press their long-held demands, which the sovereign government in Kyiv adamantly rejects: Renounce Ukraine’s sovereignty, and resist NATO’s expansion to the East.

The discussions appear to be a result of pressure, in part from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened both the Taliban and Afghan government officials with sanctions if they do not start talking. Trump also linked future U.S. assistance to Ukraine to its willingness to cooperate in peace efforts. At the same time, American lawmakers brought forward a bill calling for more stringent sanctions on Russia – but it remains to be seen whether Trump will support it.

Escalation on Both Sides
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also called for face-to-face negotiations but has expanded military operations. Russian attacks have ratcheted up across the front and more forces are moving in. Ukraine has also increased its offensive to include drone strikes on more than five Russian provinces and destructive strikes against numerous fighter aircraft.

In a pair of other bridge collapses over the weekend in Russia, which occurred in separate locations, at least seven other people were killed and numerous others were injured. Inquiries are being made about why the incidents are happening.

No Breakthrough in Sight
During the talks last month, high hopes were dashed when Putin sent a low-level delegation to the meeting rather than attending himself. While both sides had agreed to a major prisoner swap, the talks produced no progress on a ceasefire. As the Monday talks loom, it appears that both Ukraine and Russia are showing up to fulfill political expectations more than any hope for a real resolution.