Russia May Offer Air Truce to Avoid Sanctions

While the air campaign leading to a potential phased ceasefire might be winding down, sources suggested Russia was pressing on with achieving its broader war aims. With Russian forces continuing to advance on the ground, and only so many ways to intensify sanctions after four years of increasingly choking off its economy, the Kremlin may be confident that any new escalation will not affect its strategy.

Three people near the Kremlin repeated on Tuesday that Trump was unlikely to find Putin reconsidering his stance. The officials warned that Putin seems to believe new sanctions will not change Russia's strategic calculus at this point, after having suffered in several rounds of penalties since the war began in 2022.

Deadline approaches amid worsening sanctions pressure
On Friday, President Trump will issue a strict deadline for Russia to make measurable progress toward ending the war. Those failing to comply with the ruling could face broad sanctions, which include restrictions on any country from buying oil and gas from Russia.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff plans to deliver the message in Moscow on Wednesday, according to a document obtained by The Daily Beast. He is given the duty of personally delivering Trump's ultimatum to Russian leaders. The U.S., meanwhile, is said to be readying plans to go after Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of unregistered oil tankers used to circumvent current sanctions if there's no advancement by the target date.

It comes after one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the conflict began. Now, leading into last week, dozens were killed with at least 159 others injured in Kyiv after Russian airstrikes hit the region. In recent weeks, Russia has launched thousands of drone and missile strikes, with many targeting civilian areas.

In the meantime, our prime minister also held a "good conversation" with Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart has had a "product lead discussion" with Trump also on "bringing new sanctions against Russia," as well as tying up an ongoing U.S.-Ukraine drone deal. Kiev is resisting Moscow's terms for peace – including the pullout of Ukrainian forces from areas that Russia says should be made part of its territory, as well as restrictions on the size of Ukraine's armed forces.

No Breakthrough in Peace Talks
Earlier peace talks in Istanbul failed to get beyond the preliminary stage. The only movement made was through the release of prisoners, yet there has been no offering or agreements around wider conflict resolution. As long as Putin is asking for what he wants, a real peace deal seems sure to remain out of reach for now.

The Kremlin may declare an air truce, offering a hint it wants to temper the situation, but it is viewed more as a tactical step than a change of direction. In the days to come, we will see if diplomatic steps and economic threats from Washington are sufficient to compel Moscow itself to change its approach—or whether the war is merely being fought without a truce.