Ukraine Strikes Stir Russian Fury and Nuclear Threats

That could amount to number eight: Listening to the popular “Two Majors” Telegram channel — which boasts more than an million users — pondering that, well, the attacks give Russia more than just a pretext, they think it’s good enough reason to deliver a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

“After the mushroom cloud, you can sort out who lied or made mistakes,” they said, referring intimations of internal blame within the Kremlin.

Not all Russians feel that way. Political commentator Sergei Markov cautioned that the use of nuclear weapons would politically isolate Russia. The Chinese reaction is particularly harsh and stinging, responding to an increasing threat of nuclear war from hardliners but more forcefully so in the wake of these recent assaults than ever before.

A Dangerous Threshold May Have Been Crossed
Some Russian observers have insisted Ukraine’s destruction of several strategic nuclear bombers would be violating Russia’s nuclear threshold. An attack on critical military infrastructure that endangered Russia’s ability to respond to a nuclear attack could be considered by Moscow under its revised nuclear doctrine as a reason for its own retaliatory strike.

Popular television host Vladimir Solovyov announced that the Ukrainian attack was sufficient justification for a nuclear retaliation. He proposed attacking the presidential office in Ukraine and other targets outside Kyiv. Still, a nuclear attack is a remote option. The political, economic and military costs would be colossal.

It would jeopardize its relations with vital partners, such as China and India, and would face global censure. The human cost would also be potentially catastrophic, further isolating Moscow in the wider world.

Russia Could Choose More Ruthless Conventional Attacks
But despite the mounting tensions, many believe that should the Kremlin decide to use force, it will be more inclined to escalate conventional attacks on Ukraine rather than deploy its nuclear weapons. Former Russian deputy energy minister, Vladimir Milov, who is out of the country, told AFP that Russia does not have enough infantry to launch a new huge assault.

Instead, he said, Moscow could resort to more “barbaric” missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities. While the question of nuclear use seems unlikely, Milov admitted that, when it came to Russia’s leadership, “cruelty stands in for strategy.

More recently its power has become more circumscribed. Ukraine has hit the Kerch Bridge for the third time against Russia and Crimea and also kept on attacking Russia’s infrastructure and cities with drones. Ukraine’s previous seizures of portions of the Kursk region, and the West’s loosening of restraints against using arms against Russia, have only deepened Moscow’s discomfort.

The situation is fluid. With Ukraine reveling in its military success, those unintended and dangerous consequences loom. A wounded and humiliated Kremlin could seek to reassert control — and the world is watching nervously.