Sanctions Hit Russia's Aircraft Production Hard

Struggles in Aircraft Manufacturing
Accessibility to foreign aircraft and spare parts has since been limited due to the February 2022 conflict in Ukraine. Russian airlines, which operate more than 700 planes — mostly from Airbus and rival Boeing (BA.N) — are using roundabout import routes to skirt the halts of critical parts. The industry people also say the reasons for this mess might be that India was not used to making components locally, not at the level it was doing in advanced technology, and thus didn't have many manufacturing facilities in place, nor skilled engineers; all things that would take decades to ready.

It is the largest country in the world, covering 11 time zones, and for reasons of pure geography, air travel makes it indispensable to both passengers and loads. The incidents, however, have underscored the dangers of flying an old fleet. A plane crash that killed all 48 people on board in the far east in July involved a 1976-built Antonov An-24. In the following days, for example, Russian national carrier Aeroflot had to cancel dozens of flights.

This is just part of the wider industrial slowdown…inability of the aviation sector to become self-reliant…and other examples. From car making to coal mining, high interest rates hit output in July at its fastest rate since March 2022. That helped pull economic growth to a virtual standstill in the April-June quarter, and economists caution the industrial sector is not far from sliding into recession.

Production Delays and Revised Targets
Russia welcomed 52 new commercial aircraft into its fleet in 2021, comprising 27 Airbus, three Boeing and the remainder being Sukhoi Superjets — assembled with parts made outside of Russia — for carriers including Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Red Wings Airlines, Rossiya airline and Ural Airlines. Since then, just 12 Superjets and one Tupolev Tu-214 — the latter now serving as a flight out of First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.

The government has repeatedly had to revise targets down. To help maintain cash levels, the company has estimated 21 aircraft of its 2024-2025 projections — previously rated in mid-2024— will be financed by more expensive funding and lower deliveries. The state-owned Rostec, which produces Superjet-100, Tu-214, Ilyushin and Yakovlev MC21 aircraft, have failed to deliver on time.

In contrast, the MC-21 now weighs more after its components were shifted to Russian production from imported parts, cutting into performance both with range and fuel efficiency. Its adoption has been slow among airlines. The current plans target a serial production of the MC-21, SJ-100 and IL-114 in 2026 — at least two years behind schedule.

Problems and Increased Costs Around the Supply Chain
This is in addition to the measures taken to localise this sector, but all of these do not involve local production (eg parts are imported like the rest of LCVs from Turkey, China or indirectly through Kyrgyzstan and UAE). Ultimately, parts of big global manufacturers still come in parallel imports on the market without the involvement of suppliers. Officials concede no other country has completely realised import-substitution in aircraft manufacture.

Prices have been increasing in recent days as travel demand remains high while the supply of aircraft is becoming increasingly scarce in 2023 and 2024. Domestic Russia flight routes have been offered to airlines in the region, including from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while Moscow rolls out travel restrictions.