Poland EU Support Strong Despite Polexit Debate

The majority of Poles Support EU Membership 
Currently, approximately seventy-three percent of Poles want Poland to be an EU member state, while twenty-two percent of Poles wish to leave the EU. Of the Poles who wish to remain an EU member, fifty-seven percent are 'definitely' pro-EU, while the other twenty-one percent identify as 'generally' pro-EU.

Those members of Polish society who primarily have a higher level of support for EU membership are women, people between the ages of sixty and sixty-nine, large urban areas (with a population equal to or greater than 250,000), and persons with a high educational level or degree. Moreover, fifty-six percent of respondents to the survey feel that Poland has been better served by being an EU member than it has been hurt by being an EU member.

When analyzing the level of separate political party support for EU membership, there is a strong majority of support by members of the New Left Party (100%), followed closely by members of the Civic Coalition (Tusk Coalition 96.9%). Interestingly, members of the far-right Konfederacja political party, at fifty-seven percent, have a higher level of support for EU membership than members of the Law and Justice Party (54.2%).

Political Climate and Growing Euroscepticism
There is currently heightened political discord related to Poland's future EU Relationship and possible 'Polexit' caused by significant political pressures being placed upon Poland. Donald Tusk (Civic Coalition Party) warns that Poland is on the verge of making a decision that could lead to 'Polexit.' If anti-EU coalition parties win a majority in the 2027 Parliamentary Elections, Tusk believes it could determine the fate of EU membership for Poland.

President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the law that would have provided Poland with approximately $40 Billion in EU financial resources aimed at enhancing Poland's defence capabilities from potential threats. President Nawrocki believes that providing these funds to Poland would severely impede Polish sovereignty; however, the Polish government is currently attempting to find alternative ways to obtain the funds.

While the majority of political parties in Poland do not have a pronounced opposition to Polish membership in the EU, Euroscepticism has increased. Specifically, members of both the Law and Justice Party and members of the Konfederacja Party have made public actions to oppose the EU, citing that EU membership limits Poland's independence. However, over sixty percent of Polish voters who voted for President Nawrocki want Poland to be an EU member. However, thirty-two percent of Polish citizens who voted for President Nawrocki do not see any advantages resulting from Polish membership in the EU.

Declining EU Support and the Influence Brexit will have on Poland
While Poland's support for EU membership is large, the overall amount of support has declined significantly over time. In December of 2022, ninety-two percent of Polish citizens supported EU membership; thus, Poland has experienced a twenty-point decrease in EU support from this level to its current support level.

Donald Tusk has cited the United Kingdom to illustrate a country that has experienced a level of decline in EU support prior to the United Kingdom holding the Brexit vote, in which nearly seventy percent of British citizens supported continued EU membership. However, while a strong majority of British citizens supported remaining in the EU, the majority of British citizens voted for Brexit. Therefore, Tusk believes that Poland's level of EU support has declined and should not be compared to the upward trends in UK support before the Brexit Referendum.

Mr Tusk cautions that misinformation, conspiracy theories, and ultra-nationalism should not dictate the decision-making of Polish politicians regarding the future of Polish membership in the EU. Mr Tusk believes that if Poland is no longer a member of the EU, Poland's sovereignty, autonomy, and freedom from outside interference would be severely diminished.